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litchI keep hearing people talk about ominous "hurricane force winds" in austin.
Here's the actual wind probabilities from the NHC
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 10(33) 2(35) 2(37)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
each line represents the chance of getting a wind of the speed in the second column over the next five days,
the third through sixth colume is a 12 hour period from 7 to 7 (seventh through 9th is a 24 7-7 period), each number is the chance of getting wind in that period, the number in parenthesis is the cumulative chance of getting wind that speed over the entire time.
So there is 5% chance we might see 64knt winds (hurricane) over the next three days, a 3% chance on sunday.
The most likely time for us to see serious wind is firday night, when we only have a 17% (1 in 6) chance of seeing 34 knot winds.
Here's the actual wind probabilities from the NHC
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 10(33) 2(35) 2(37)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
each line represents the chance of getting a wind of the speed in the second column over the next five days,
the third through sixth colume is a 12 hour period from 7 to 7 (seventh through 9th is a 24 7-7 period), each number is the chance of getting wind in that period, the number in parenthesis is the cumulative chance of getting wind that speed over the entire time.
So there is 5% chance we might see 64knt winds (hurricane) over the next three days, a 3% chance on sunday.
The most likely time for us to see serious wind is firday night, when we only have a 17% (1 in 6) chance of seeing 34 knot winds.
