Sep. 22nd, 2005 10:36 am
litch: (Default)
I keep hearing people talk about ominous "hurricane force winds" in austin.

Here's the actual wind probabilities from the NHC
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 10(33) 2(35) 2(37)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

each line represents the chance of getting a wind of the speed in the second column over the next five days,

the third through sixth colume is a 12 hour period from 7 to 7 (seventh through 9th is a 24 7-7 period), each number is the chance of getting wind in that period, the number in parenthesis is the cumulative chance of getting wind that speed over the entire time.

So there is 5% chance we might see 64knt winds (hurricane) over the next three days, a 3% chance on sunday.

The most likely time for us to see serious wind is firday night, when we only have a 17% (1 in 6) chance of seeing 34 knot winds.
litch: (Default)
There's a palpable unease at work this afternoon, lots of Rita anxiety. Many of the people there haven't live here long, trolling the news sites they become alarmed. They cite dire predictions of "hurricane force winds" hitting us, and "possible flooding". Piffle and penobscott!

It's too damn early to know which way she's going to turn, and those dire predictions assume the worst path. Even slightly off and the potentials drop drastically. The only flooding will be localized flash flooding (unless it stalls out over us like a giant hen with ten billion eggs of rain), even that won't be too bad because we've had a wet summer and most of the waterways still have viable ground cover.

I'll be more confident in the morning when we get inside the 3 day forcast, but I doubt we'll see more than a bunch of rain (9-10") and some normal strong winds (40knts).
litch: (Default)
Mmmm catagory 5 hurricane headed for nawlins

should be interesting


litch: (Default)

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